PERKEMBANGAN DAN PERAMALAN HARGA BERAS MEDIUM DI BATURAJA KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ULU

Abstract

Rice is a primary food commodity in Indonesia. Fluctuations in rice prices cause economic problems for the public. The aim of this thesis is to determine developments in the price of medium rice in Baturaja, Ogan Komering Ulu Regency from 2020 - 2023 and to predict what the price of medium rice will be in Batraja, Ogan Komering Ulu Regency in the next 10 years. The research method used in this research is literature study, the data collected is secondary data (time series) obtained from the Ogan Komering Ulu District Agriculture Service. The data processing and analysis method for the development of medium rice prices in Baturaja, Ogan Komering Ulu Regency uses descriptive analysis and trend analysis. Based on the results of the analysis, the development of medium rice prices in Baturaja, Ogan Komering Ulu Regency in 2020 - 2023 experienced fluctuations, this was caused by several factors, namely the turn of the new year, the COVID 19 pandemic, the harvest period, the increase in fuel prices, the El Nino phenomenon, and other issues. political issues, while forecasting the price of medium rice in Baturaja, Ogan Komering Ulu Regency for the next 10 years is predicted to continue to increase every year with an average price of Rp 17,196.00 and an average growth rate of 5.24%.